Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 161.205555 194.789006 236.163093 291.783992 366.025503 4.638497e+02 6.062841e+02
2025-01-12 122.774319 161.909674 216.375751 300.802583 434.560171 6.505991e+02 1.056410e+03
2025-01-19 98.214723 136.871895 195.101510 294.624617 473.392255 8.128112e+02 1.611815e+03
2025-01-26 89.006867 130.437684 197.615806 323.883776 581.967139 1.168177e+03 2.994159e+03
2025-02-02 81.282577 124.068855 197.795701 348.172220 693.735334 1.629293e+03 5.613617e+03
2025-02-09 74.535405 117.680481 195.941271 367.376196 806.017464 2.218754e+03 1.082901e+04
2025-02-16 68.305566 110.897597 191.550916 379.458745 909.204117 2.928899e+03 2.150979e+04
2025-02-23 62.826353 104.467751 186.314752 387.746267 1008.954430 3.810407e+03 4.621675e+04
2025-03-02 56.782981 96.026178 175.238423 378.132110 1047.681738 4.504195e+03 9.023937e+04
2025-03-09 51.684675 88.703340 165.196486 368.265016 1081.524116 5.282819e+03 1.955943e+05
2025-03-16 46.988536 81.583427 154.404561 353.354976 1088.913044 5.946119e+03 4.362303e+05
2025-03-23 46.114916 82.027211 160.630129 389.048319 1335.745135 9.579487e+03 1.605634e+07
2025-03-30 43.110799 77.846756 155.763476 391.354052 1445.437274 1.271707e+04 NaN
2025-04-06 41.122304 75.585918 155.181081 407.713433 1651.855511 1.937288e+04 NaN
2025-04-13 38.190321 70.926651 147.839410 398.978401 1712.109392 2.446379e+04 NaN
2025-04-20 37.748329 71.700788 154.527560 442.965744 2176.138700 5.323458e+04 NaN
2025-04-27 36.926007 71.498479 158.620997 479.850939 2679.532960 1.242621e+05 NaN
2025-05-04 35.843592 70.549367 160.490708 509.265049 3206.872744 3.246851e+05 NaN
2025-05-11 34.499637 68.815073 159.810244 527.884369 3696.418988 9.558844e+05 NaN
2025-05-18 33.102200 66.793794 157.941440 540.705287 4179.529678 3.875275e+06 NaN
2025-05-25 31.155185 63.224788 150.852114 525.835894 4279.397998 1.053461e+07 NaN
2025-06-01 29.372818 59.913251 144.112153 510.632216 4358.824180 4.008764e+07 NaN
2025-06-08 27.573563 56.411664 136.335465 487.769248 4284.664749 1.299944e+08 NaN